Universities with lower entry requirements could be at
greatest risk of losing students and millions of pounds in income under the new
funding regime, data suggest.
That suggestion comes as the sector awaits details on how
individual institutions have fared in the first year of £9,000 tuition fees.
The Universities and Colleges Admissions Service will this
month publish figures, broken down by institution, for student numbers in
2012-13 and applications for 2013 entry. Viewed together, they could reveal
whether a group of universities has a serious structural problem under the new
system.
Sector-wide figures on 2013 entry published by Ucas last
week showed that the number of applicants to university at 17 December 2012 was
5.6 per cent lower than at the same point in the cycle the previous year.
However, it is thought that unpublished Ucas figures at 30
December show a 2.2 per cent rise. There is still time for application figures
to move further in either direction before the final Ucas deadline on 15
January.
Ucas' end-of-cycle report on 2012 admissions suggests that
some lower-tariff universities could be at risk of losing large numbers of
students. Two successive years in which student numbers drop by 10 to 15 per
cent could leave a university with severe financial problems.
The report shows that the number of students entering UK
higher education fell by 54,000 (11 per cent) compared with 2011.
But a section of the report not covered by the media and not
highlighted by Ucas at its press briefing shows the differing impact across
different types of university.
It shows that the number of UK and European Union students
accepting places in 2012 fell by 7,300 (-7 per cent) at institutions with
high-entry tariffs, by 15,500 (-11 per cent) at medium-tariff institutions and
by 30,500 (-14 per cent) at low-tariff institutions.
Meanwhile, an internal email at Canterbury Christ Church
University seen by Times Higher Education reveals concern over the
institution's application figures for 2013.
Susan Piotrowski, pro vice-chancellor (academic), says in an
email dated 5 December: "Nationally applications are currently down by
6.51 per cent.
"Disappointingly our applications are down 11.19 per
cent, although at one stage in early November they were down 23 per cent."
Professor Piotrowski also notes trends in the institution's
competitor group, made up of the universities of Brighton, Greenwich, Kent and
Portsmouth and Anglia Ruskin and Kingston universities. She adds: "Our
competitor institutions have also seen a decline in applications and they are currently
down 10.69 per cent."
Source: 10 January 2013, Times Higher Education by John
Morgan
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